By Mohammed Taoheed

Nigeria can meet its three million barrels per day (3mbpd) oil production target by 2030 if oil producers and contractors adopt deliberate, phase-by-phase strategic communication, an energy communication researcher, Adeola Yusuf, has said.

Mr Yusuf made the case during a plenary session at the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026, where he called on Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu to demand clear communication plans from operators responsible for delivering the production target.

The session was attended by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri; the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Patience Oyekunle; and key industry players.

Speaking on “Impact of Storytelling in Attracting Investment in Nigeria and Africa’s Energy Transformation,” Mr Yusuf said research shows that policies and projects backed by structured, phase-by-phase communication have higher success rates than those without clear communication frameworks.

Strategic communication as a delivery tool

Mr Yusuf, who is also the Team Lead of Platforms Africa, urged the president to insist that oil producers and contractors provide regular updates on progress towards the 3mbpd target set for 2030.

He said such communication should clearly outline each phase of development, noting that transparency and clarity are essential for sustaining momentum and confidence around the target.

“The Honourable Minister, you have been working hard on the mandate and I urge you, sir, to adopt and demand contractors and producers to adopt strategic communication on the phase-by-phase development of the task,” he said.

He also called on oil producers awarded contracts to raise Nigeria’s output to work harder to deliver on the mandate given to them by President Tinubu.

Per capita production and urgency of the target

Mr Yusuf stressed that Nigeria cannot afford to miss the 2030 target, pointing out that even if the country achieves the 3mbpd goal, per capita oil production would still decline.

According to him, Nigeria currently produces about 1.6 million barrels of oil daily, with a population of around 200 million people, translating to a per capita oil production of 0.008 barrel per person.

By 2030, he said, Nigeria’s population is projected to reach about 401 million, which would reduce per capita oil production to 0.007 barrel per person even if the 3mbpd target is achieved.

“As huge as the three million barrels daily production target looks, it is still going to be below the current production of 1.6 million barrels daily in terms of per capita production,” he said, adding that this makes it imperative for the country not to lag behind the target being pursued by the president and the minister.

Lessons from the Petroleum Industry Bill

Drawing from his research on press coverage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) between 2018 and 2021, Mr Yusuf said progress on the legislation was better communicated in 2021, following its passage and presidential assent, than in earlier years.

He recalled that the former President, Muhammadu Buhari signed the PIB into law on 16 August 2021, after its passage by the National Assembly in July of that year, ending a legislative process that had lasted since the early 2000s.

However, he said communication around the bill was poor in 2018, when progress after passage and the subsequent withholding of presidential assent were met with official silence.

According to him, although the Senate transmitted the harmonised PIB to the president on 8 June 2018 and the decision to withhold assent was conveyed to the National Assembly on 29 July 2018, the information only became public a month later.

He said the contrast between the communication approaches in 2018 and 2021 demonstrates the power of strategic communication in policy formulation and implementation.

Mr Yusuf maintained that for Nigeria to meet its three million barrels per day oil production target by 2030, there must be deliberate and consistent communication, both internally and externally by those responsible for delivering the mandate.